Free tool
How many hands do I need?
Enter your win rate and see how many hands it takes before that number means more than a good run of cards. Everything is worked out in your browser; nothing you type is sent anywhere.
Enter a win rate to see the hands you need.
Add hands played to see the win rate that sample can prove.
How it works
A win rate is significant at about 95% once it exceeds 1.96 × SD ÷ √(hands ÷ 100). Turned around, you need 100 × (1.96 × SD ÷ win rate)² hands. With a standard deviation of 90 bb/100, 10,000 hands only proves a win rate above about 17.6 bb/100.
Assumptions
- Two-sided test at 95% confidence (z = 1.96).
- The null hypothesis is a true win rate of zero: the question is “am I winning at all?”
- The default standard deviation of 90 bb/100 is a typical 6-max no-limit figure. Use your own if your tracker reports one.
- Hands are treated as independent, and the sample as unbiased.
- Significance says nothing about selection bias (picking the stretch you measure) or about skill versus luck in general. It only says a zero win rate would rarely produce your result.